Vistopia
The US Election and a World in Transition
Meilun Meihuan&Xiaohua et al.

本集主播

Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，政治科学与因果推断爱好者
Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者
曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者
王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔

收听提示

00:56 主播们如何看民调吗？在哪看？
04:48 民调是怎么做出来的？
13:48 为什么美国还在用固定电话做民调？
17:54 为什么近年的民调会不准？
26:48 2024年民调做了什么调整？
33:06 为什么做民调这么难？
41:25 今年的民调会高估或低估特朗普吗？
44:54 摇摆州民调会更靠谱吗?
48:50 内部民调靠谱吗?
52:58 民主党和共和党对民调不同的反应
01:04:18 选举预测模型靠谱吗?

本集相关

美轮美换“更新最新民调均值、民调、选举预测和赔率，以及近期重要新闻”的网站：theamericanroulette.com
截至2024.10.15：
 
Episode editor: 美轮美换、香芋
2024.10.16
Audio in Chinese

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Featured comments

4 comments
  • 草蔻蔻
    2024-10-16 10:45:17

    这期讲的好清楚！

  • 霞客
    2024-10-16 10:10:11

    谢谢看理想

  • 芭芭拉
    2024-10-22 11:43:11

    链接 请问在哪能看到

  • 减肥小子
    2024-10-17 18:19:15

    真好